Date of Last Revision

2023-05-03 05:05:10


Statistics - Actuarial Science

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science

Date of Expected Graduation

Spring 2018


Catastrophe modeling is used to prepare for losses caused by natural catastrophes such as earthquakes, hurricanes, or tornadoes and man-made catastrophes such as terrorism. Modeled data can be used to create a comprehensive distribution of possible disasters. The distribution gives probabilities of potential catastrophes of different severities occurring over a certain time frame. Calculating potential losses and probability of those losses occurring allows insurance companies to plan and reserve enough money to protect themselves from catastrophic events. Using a catastrophe case study posted online from the Casualty Actuarial Society and R software, this paper shows the use of statistical techniques to create an Exceedance Probability plot for possible losses from a set of hurricanes with varying loss severity (CAS 18). The creation of the probability plot will then be used on a set of data called “SP500_2000to2015_SM” to show how the use of catastrophe modeling can apply to financial data.

Research Sponsor

Dr. Nao Mimoto

First Reader

Dr. Mark Fridline

Second Reader

Dr. Jun Ye


On the signature page, Dr. Einsporn, the Honors Faculty Advisor accidentally signed on the reader spot where Dr. Fridline should of signed. Dr. Einsporn also signed off for the Faculty Advisor spot, but Dr. Fridline instead signed on the Department Head spot even though he is a reader.



To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.