College
Buchtel College of Arts and Sciences
Date of Last Revision
2024-06-04 07:24:08
Major
Biology
Honors Course
BIOL 499
Number of Credits
2
Degree Name
Bachelor of Science
Date of Expected Graduation
Spring 2024
Abstract
The spring ephemeral plant Bloodroot (Sanguinaria canadensis) has a widespread native range in North America, spanning much of the eastern United States and Canada. While its current NatureServe conservation status is designated as ‘secure’ (NatureServe, 2023), its status as a spring ephemeral places it at a heightened risk for climate change-induced phenological mismatch with advancing forest canopy closure. Additionally, under continued anthropogenic climate change, Bloodroot may also experience range shifts or contractions as the edges of its present range warm past physiological thresholds. To determine the potential for range shifts and contractions under future warming, I generated a species distribution model (SDM) for Bloodroot. The model was built under contemporary (1960-1990) climate variables and then projected to a future climate scenario (2050s) using maximum entropy modeling (Maxent). 17,203 georeferenced and spatially rarefied occurrences with an 80-20% split were used for training and testing the model, respectively. I used the 19 Bioclim variables from WorldClim for both contemporary and future scenarios. Comparisons of thresholded range maps from the contemporary and future predictions demonstrated a northward shift in Bloodroot’s distribution, with a small overall decrease in the predicted suitable area, primarily at the trailing southern edge. These results will inform management and conservation for this important native species under climate change, with ramifications for other aspects of Bloodroot life history, including pollination and seed dispersal.
Research Sponsor
Chelsea Miller
First Reader
Gary Holliday
Second Reader
Randall Mitchell
Honors Faculty Advisor
Brian Bagatto
Proprietary and/or Confidential Information
No
Recommended Citation
Manivannan, Velan, "Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling for the spring ephemeral herb Bloodroot (Sanguinaria canadensis) in Eastern North America" (2024). Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects. 1834.
https://ideaexchange.uakron.edu/honors_research_projects/1834
Included in
Environmental Health Commons, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons, Population Biology Commons