College
Buchtel College of Arts and Sciences (BCAS)
Date of Last Revision
2023-05-03 17:15:08
Major
Statistics - Actuarial Science
Honors Course
3470-498
Number of Credits
3
Degree Name
Bachelor of Science
Date of Expected Graduation
Spring 2020
Abstract
Rational Expectations Hypothesis is an economic theorem that states that our best way to predict the future is by looking at the past. While this theory is typically used to address inflation, the same concept can be used when predicting future home sales. With the failure of subprime mortgages and the burst of the housing market bubble in 2008, home sales are proven to be an appropriate indication of how the U.S. economy is performing. Through time series analysis, I will be able to construct a model with monthly home sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Due to seasonality within the data, an sARIMA modeling approach is required to fit the data. Once this model is built, I can test its accuracy to the dataset as well as make a forecast for the near future. Looking into the next five years, a forecast made by my sARIMA model of best fit predicts a slight decline in Home Sales across the country.
Research Sponsor
Dr. Nao Mimoto
First Reader
Dr. Richard Einsporn
Second Reader
Dr. Mark Fridline
Honors Faculty Advisor
Dr. Richard Einsporn
Recommended Citation
Hellenthal, Noah R., "Home Sales as a Time Series Model" (2020). Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects. 1103.
https://ideaexchange.uakron.edu/honors_research_projects/1103