College
Buchtel College of Arts and Sciences
Date of Last Revision
2025-05-06 06:37:37
Major
Political Science
Honors Course
POLIT 446
Number of Credits
3
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Date of Expected Graduation
Spring 2025
Abstract
This report discusses and explores a series of scenarios regarding the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war, which began in February 2022. The three scenarios are a continued stalemate, where neither side gains an upper hand in the conflict, a Ukrainian victory, and a Russian victory. Each scenario also explores several factors that could impact their likelihood, including international support, battlefield prowess, etc. This paper aims to provide readers with the necessary context to understand the situation in Ukraine and the likely outcomes of the conflict. Research for this project was conducted between March and April 2025, with findings representing an as-current-as-possible picture of the scenarios. Sources included published journals, government documents, think-tanks such as RAND, Chatham House, and the Atlantic Council, NATO and EU websites, and newspaper articles from sources such as NPR and Reuters. This paper assessed the current events and concluded that Scenario 1, a status quo ‘long war’, was the most likely due to factors including combatant resolve, likely continuity of international support for Ukraine, and the likelihood of current negotiations falling apart.
Research Sponsor
Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler
First Reader
Dr. Ronald Gelleny
Second Reader
LTC Chad Maynard
Honors Faculty Advisor
Dr. Ronald Gelleny
Proprietary and/or Confidential Information
No
Recommended Citation
O'Brien, Jonathon, "Futures Assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian War" (2025). Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects. 2003.
https://ideaexchange.uakron.edu/honors_research_projects/2003
Included in
Defense and Security Studies Commons, International Relations Commons, Military and Veterans Studies Commons, Peace and Conflict Studies Commons