Date of Last Revision
2023-05-02 14:10:48
Major
Chemical Engineering
Degree Name
Bachelor of Science
Date of Expected Graduation
Spring 2015
Abstract
The goal of this project was to develop a model that could predict the probability of pipeline failure due to internal corrosion in order to prevent pipeline outages/ruptures. The intended audience of this model is oil pipeline owners. The model used the ASME Modified B31G method to determine the pipeline failure pressure. Inputs to the model include corrosion defect length, depth, corrosion rate, yield strength, and pipeline diameter/thickness which are collected using an in-line inspection (ILI) tool. The model outputs include failure probability as a function of time, the time discounted economic risk due to failure, and the recommended year of repair. The failure probability was evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation which used MATLAB generated distribution parameters. At each corrosion anomaly site, the cost of repair was compared to the discounted economic risk due to failure. For this project, ILI data of a 100 kilometer pipeline was provided by a confidential industry source. The model recommendations include making over 2,600 repairs over a 15 year time span based on a failure cost of $1,000,000 and a repair cost of $10,000. This led to avoiding $13.5 million worth of corrosion induced risk.
Research Sponsor
Dr. Homero Castaneda Lopez
First Reader
Dr. Qixin Zhou
Second Reader
Dr. Chelsea Monty
Recommended Citation
Ripple, Jessica Y., "Proposed Statistical Model for Corrosion Failure Prediction and Lifetime Extension of Pipelines" (2015). Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects. 101.
https://ideaexchange.uakron.edu/honors_research_projects/101