Date of Graduation

Spring 2018

Document Type

Honors Research Project

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science

Major

Statistics - Actuarial Science

Research Sponsor

Dr. Richard Einsporn

First Reader

Dr. Mark Fridline

Second Reader

Dr. Nao Mimoto

Abstract

The purpose of this essay will be to examine the effectiveness of the James-Stein estimator, and its application to baseball and the saber metrics movement. This report will utilize James-Stein theorem and average prediction error to predict the batting averages, slugging percentage, and OPS with only the first 50 at bats of the 2017 season. Also, this report will provide graphs, charts, and data to prove that the James-Stein estimator is an improvement of the MLE in terms of expected loss.

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